The San Francisco 49ers may have the most gifted offense ever assembled, with several players able to do multiple things. Our NFL picks believe Brock Purdy will lead his team to another big game offensively, exceeding their team total.
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will cap off a Week 12 odds Thanksgiving three-pack Thursday night as the 49ers enter the divisional game as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 according to TNF odds.
With the news surrounding Geno Smith’s health and availability, should bettors look at something more constant like the San Francisco offense, especially following Brock Purdy’s perfect Week 11 performance?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the 49ers vs. Seahawks on November 23.
Brock Purdy was perfect over the weekend, finishing with a 158.3 passer rating in the 27-14 win over the Bucs, and this offense has hit its stride following its Week 9 bye.
In the two games since the week off, the San Francisco 49ers have put up 857 yards and 7.2 yards per play, which is better than the Dolphins’ league-best 7.0-yard mark on the season. That includes 437 yards in a 34-3 road win over the Jags two weeks ago who, in my opinion, have a much better defense than the Seattle Seahawks.
San Francisco has scored at least 21 points in every one of the last 10 meetings vs. Seattle which is also 6-3-1 to the Over. I don’t value head-to-head matchups over a long stretch as very valuable, but in this case, it shows me Kyle Shannahan can game plan vs. Pete Carroll’s defense without any issues… and this might be the most talented 49ers’ offense he is bringing to Lumen Field.
Purdy has thrown his hat into the NFL MVP odds conversation, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are both healthy and unstoppable, George Kittle has 25 catches for 432 yards over his last four games, and Trent Williams is back on the O-line. I didn’t even mention Christian McCaffrey: he has more total TDs than Geno Smith has passing TDs on the season.
The 49ers could be even better this week if they can get starting guard Aaron Banks back in the lineup after the starter has missed the last two games. But even in his absence, backup Jon Feliciano has graded positively both in the pass and run game, per Pro Football Focus.
The Seahawks have some questions of their own. Smith is dealing with an elbow injury he picked up last week on a tough Aaron Donald hit, and although he looks likely to get the start, he was DNP at the estimated practice and the short week isn’t doing him any favors. He will also have a rookie in Zach Charbonnet likely picking up the blitz as Kenneth Walker could miss some time with an oblique injury.
All this could add up to a better time of possession, and more drives for the 49ers which should equate to more points vs. a Seattle defense that ranks 28th in EPA/play over the last four weeks.
In all seven of their wins, the Niners have topped a team total of 25.5 points with three of those coming on the road. I’m not sure anyone can stop this offense with four elite options to slow down.
If Smith is healthy, he will push this San Fran offense to keep scoring while a Lock start could be another lopsided victory where the Niners gets great field position all game and could easily create multiple turnovers. There are positives to both outcomes.
My best bet: 49ers team total Over 25.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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The 49ers were as short as -4 on the look-ahead and hit as long as -7 as of Sunday/Monday. The news of Geno Smith likely being good to go has moved this off the 7 and to the 6.5 at most places as of Tuesday morning. There has been some Seattle love at the +7 which is understandable considering the 49ers were -3 on the road at Jacksonville just two weeks ago.
Some love for the Hawks also consists of the 49ers losing starting safety Talanoa Hufanga. He was replaced by third-round rookie Ji’Ayir Brown last week and all the rookie did was get four tackles, had three passes defended, and solidified the game with a red-zone interception. I don’t see this as a game-changing injury and feel the Smith and Walker injuries are more noteworthy.
Smith is dealing with a bruised tendon on his elbow (non-throwing) and was DNP on Monday on the estimated practice report.
Geno Smith –
I have some concern on his right elbow after Donald forcibly stopped his forward motion on this throw. Could have caused some ligament or nerve stress. He was seen shaking his arm out too on his way to the tent. pic.twitter.com/XhBEXkxnuW
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) November 19, 2023
However, his head coach has said he won’t practice until Wednesday but is likely to start Thursday. He did add that Drew Lock would be ready to go if Smith can’t suit up.
Pete Carroll says Geno Smith likely will not practice until Wednesday, but #Seahawks believe he will start vs 49ers Thursday.
“And if he can’t make it, Drew is ready to go.” Lock will be QB1 in practice today, Tuesday.
Yes, Seattle is practicing today. Gotta love Thurs games
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) November 20, 2023
A switch to Lock would move this past the 7.0 and also likely take a hit on the total that sits at 43. If Smith is fine and unaffected, the +7 would be very attractive. This offense could still move the ball vs. the 49ers through the air as this is a defense that ranks 27th in success rate since Week 8.
Smith’s condition will ultimately drive this spread and total and the best case for Seattle +7 and Over 43 is backers is a healthy Smith who can deal even without Walker, and the best-case scenario for San Francisco +6.5 backers is a Lock start.
The weather in Seattle looks fine on Thursday night and looking at the pace of play, the 49ers rank dead last in POP in neutral context while the Seahawks play at a Top 10 pace.
The 49ers have hit the 1H game total Over in seven of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Seahawks.
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| Location: | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 23, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Seahawks +4.5, 44.5 O/U |
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