The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Best Bets
Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors
Under 226.5 (-112)
The Phoenix Suns have been a scoring machine, going over in 8 of the last 10 games. However, injuries could prevent the Suns from another big scoring night.
Kevin Durant is questionable and could miss his third consecutive game with a foot injury. Plus, Bradley Beal will miss his eighth consecutive game with a back injury. Durant ranks second on the team with a 32.8% usage rate. While he’s played in only three games, Beal was also a key cog with a 32.1% usage rate. Durant leads the team with 31.4 points per game (PPG) and has the seventh-shortest odds to win the MVP award (+2300) when looking at FanDuel’s NBA award odds.
Replacing this kind of production is no easy feat. In the last two games without Durant, Phoenix averaged 113.0 PPG, and the game totals were 219.5 and 220.5. Tonight’s matchup against the Toronto Raptors has a total of 226.5. Considering the Suns’ injuries and each team’s pace of play, this contest could be poised for the under.
The pace of play could be the biggest key. Phoenix plays at the 4th-slowest pace while Toronto has the 11th-slowest pace. The Raptors may have the tools to slow the Suns, who have the sixth-best offensive rating.
Phoenix shoots plenty of free throws at 26.5 per game (fourth-most), but Toronto averages only 18.3 fouls per game (sixth-fewest) and gives up just 20.6 free throw attempts per game (sixth-fewest). Limiting the Suns’ free throws could be key, especially if Durant is absent.
Additionally, Phoenix has been lethal from the three-point line at 39.3% (second-best). The Raptors have a solid perimeter defense with opponents averaging 34.0 three-point shots per game (11th-best).
If Durant does not play, the Suns’ top three scorers will be Devin Booker (29.4 PPG), Eric Gordon (14.9 PPG), and Grayson Allen (11.9 PPG). Booker (5.1 attempts), Gordon (7.1 attempts), and Allen (5.0 attempts) average the most three-point attempts on the team. This would suggest Phoenix’s three-point shooting could be at the forefront tonight, but if Toronto’s perimeter defense is airtight, scoring could be an uphill battle.
Keep in mind that the Raptors have the seventh-worst defensive rating and average only 111.4 PPG (ninth-worst). The Suns have the eighth-best mark in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%).
I’m expecting a low-scoring game with the under delivering in the Suns-Raptors.
Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans
76ers -2.5 (-110)
The Philadelphia 76ers against the New Orleans Pelicans could be one of the most interesting matchups of the night. The 76ers have been up and down over their last 10 games with a 6-4 record, but they are still 12-5 and tied for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Pelicans have dealt with inconsistencies, carrying a 9-9 record and coming off back-to-back losses against the 6-11 Utah Jazz.
These teams are far apart when it comes to their season goals. According to FanDuel’s NBA lines, Philadelphia has the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+1500), and New Orleans is -104 to make the playoffs. The team ratings further show the gap, for the Sixers have the 2nd-best offensive rating and 10th-best defensive rating, while the Pels have the 13th-worst offensive rating and 11th-best defensive rating.
Philly is clearly leaps and bounds above New Orleans, yet the 76ers are favored by only 2.5 points. It’s likely due to the Pelicans’ success at home, as they are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in the Smoothie King Center. Philadelphia has been no slouch on the road, though, with a 5-2 record ATS. Something has to give — which side should we take?
The Sixers’ offense has been excellent, led by Joel Embiid (32.0 PPG; 123.2 offensive rating) and Tyrese Maxey (26.6 PPG; 121.8 offensive rating). New Orleans’ Dyson Daniels (113.5 defensive rating) and Jonas Valanciunas (114.8 defensive rating) will likely draw the matchups; neither player has been exceptional on defense and could struggle to slow the superstar duo.
The fastbreak could also allow Philly to flourish. They average the 2nd-most fastbreak points, and the Pelicans give up the 10th-most fastbreak points. The Sixers could also grab extra possessions, as they have the fifth-best mark in offensive rebounding percentage. New Orleans has the 16th-best defensive rebounding percentage. Like many categories, the Pelicans have been a mediocre rebounding team.
Ultimately, the 76ers’ offense could prove to be too much with their ability to gain extra possessions and push the pace. Give me Philadelphia to cover the spread.
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings
Clippers -2 (-110)
Despite their 10-6 record while holding the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, the Sacramento Kings continue to be overlooked. They are home underdogs against the 7-9 Los Angeles Clippers. The Kings have been an underdog only five times this season and every single game has been a cover ATS. Sacramento is also 5-1 at home. The Clippers have struggled on the road with a 2-6 ATS record, as well.
However, I am going to go completely against the grain and taking Los Angeles to cover the spread. The trends point to the Kings, but bare with me. Let’s dive into the support for the Clippers.
Sacramento could struggle to score. LA will have the best unit on the floor with the league’s sixth-best defensive rating. The Kings look to shoot threes in bulk at 42.2 attempts per game (third-most), but the Clippers give up only 33.6 three-point shots per game (eighth-fewest). Over the last three games, Los Angeles has also surrendered only 9.7 converted three-pointers per game. This is far below Sacramento’s season average of 14.8 (fifth-best).
The Kings have the eighth-best mark in assist-to-turnover ratio. However, the Clips have a defense that creates havoc with 9.6 steals per game (first). Sacramento is not immune to turnovers by any means at 13.8 per game (13th-best).
LA has the 11th-worst mark in offensive rating, but the Kings’ tendency to give up free throws could lead to points. The Clippers average the seventh-most free throws per game while Sacramento gives up the ninth-most free throws per game. The free throw differential could be a key area in a low-scoring game. Los Angeles also gives up the 10th-fewest free throws per game.
Overall, the Clippers’ defense could reign supreme, leading to the win and cover.
Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.