It’s here. In less than two hours, a Super Bowl champion will be determined, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles battle for glory. It’s Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts. Will this be the high-scoring affair everyone is expecting, or will the game script shock all of us? Could Philly coast to victory, or will gamblers end up kicking themselves for not taking Kansas City as underdogs?
If you’re looking for some advice on what picks to make, what bets to place and how you could potentially make money, you’re in luck. In this piece, we will examine the different betting angles for this matchup. We will provide picks from both CBS Sports and SportsLine experts on this Super Bowl showdown, as well as a few player props and game props that we view as enticing. Additionally, if you want to check out 57 bets to consider for Super Bowl 57, click here.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Feb. 12 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Arizona
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Odds: Eagles -1.5, O/U 51
Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs vs. Eagles picks against the spread
“The Chiefs are going to score points. That means the Eagles will have to get their share of big plays as well. I think they do, mostly coming on the deep passing game.
“Look for Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to attack Hurts, who has struggled some when blitzed. Spagnuolo is known for his blitzing style, so it makes sense to do so here. The only problem is it can lead to big plays for Hurts running it and for the big chunk plays down the field to Eagles receivers DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown.
“Both offenses will have success. That will make this a fun Super Bowl. But, in the end, new school will beat old school. Give me the best quarterback in the league on the biggest stage. Mahomes will close out the season with the award trifecta: League MVP, Super Bowl MVP and another ring to add to his first one.
“The Chiefs dynasty will be in full force come late Sunday evening.”
— CBS Sports Senior NFL Writer Pete Prisco likes the Chiefs to pull off the upset over the high-flying Eagles. To read his full explanation, click here.
Before you lock in your Chiefs vs. Eagles picks, you need to see which side R.J. White is on. White, a Fantasy and gambling editor for CBS Sports, consistently crushes against-the-spread picks and went 445-378-24 on his ATS picks from 2017-21, which returned $2,542 to $100 players. He’s also an incredible 103-74-6 on his last 183 against-the-spread and total NFL picks, returning $2,070 for $100 bettors.
We can tell you he’s leaning Under the total, but to check out his official against the spread pick, head on over to SportsLine.
“This isn’t as simple as comparing lineups on paper. It never is. And for that reason, it’s hard to pick against the all-world contingent of Reid, Mahomes and Kelce, which sure seems like the contemporary edition of the once-supreme Patriots trio of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. When push comes to shove, they often find a way. This writer fully expects Mahomes, in particular, to give Gannon’s Eagles “D” more trouble than it’s gotten in weeks — maybe all year — with slice-and-dice, dink-and-dunk action that prioritizes motion, screens and red-zone trickery.
“The X factor, however, comes in the trenches. Both teams possess Pro Bowl-caliber fronts. And both have premium pressure artists — Chris Jones in Kansas City, and Haason Reddick in Philly. The Eagles just happen to have a deeper rotation. After absorbing 11 QB hits between his first two playoff games this year, Mahomes could be in for a slightly more frantic day here, and in that case, Philly feels a bit better suited to capitalize on a forced downfield shot, boasting handsy and opportunistic starters at corner and safety. Couple that with the Eagles’ more consistent ground game, plus Sirianni’s aggression compared to Reid’s penchant for occasional clock-management miscues, and we’ll give the Birds the slightest of early nods.”
— CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin likes the Birds to hoist the Lombardi on Sunday night. To read his breakdown of the Big Game, click here.
“Jalen Hurts could prove to be a nightmare for Kansas City as the quarterback’s skill set matches up well against this defense. As we’ve pointed out throughout the postseason, Hurts has enjoyed particular success on deep balls, owning an NFL-best 123.4 on throws 25 yards or more down the field. The Chiefs allow the fourth-highest passer rating on those types of throws this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia does run most of its offense in the shotgun. The club’s 89% shotgun rate was the second highest in the league this year, and while playing against shotgun the Chiefs rank 29th in the league giving up a 94.4 passer rating. Even if they can bottle up Hurts through the air, he can be just as lethal with his legs, especially against a K.C. defense that has given up the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
“Defensively, the Eagles will, of course, have the tall task of trying to neutralize Patrick Mahomes, but this unit, led by defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, has the talent to be up for the challenge. Philly has allowed the fewest passing yards per game and lowest passer rating this season and can apply tremendous pressure on the quarterback. This postseason, the Eagles’ defense is applying pressure 54% of the time and currently has 78 sacks on the year, which is the third-most all time. The Eagles’ lone weakness may be their run defense, but that has also seen a bit of an uptick these playoffs. Knowing what the Eagles do best, it feels like they can exploit a couple of weaknesses that K.C. has, especially if Mahomes is playing at less than 100% due to that ankle injury that still looked to bother him in the AFC Championship. He also may have limited options in the passing game with a number of Chiefs receivers banged up.
“There’s also a bit of history of Philadelphia’s side. There have only been seven Super Bowls with a line of 2.5 or less. The favorites in those games have gone 6-1 SU and ATS.”
— CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan is riding with the favorites. To read his full explanation, click here.
“The biggest matchup in this game is going to be Patrick Mahomes against the Eagles pass-rush. Through 19 games, the Eagles have totaled 78 sacks on the season, which is the third-most in NFL history behind only the 1984 Bears (82 sacks) and the 1985 Bears (80 sacks). The Eagles had four players this year who all recorded at least 10 sacks — Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat — and if those guys spend four quarters beating up on Mahomes and his gimpy ankle, then this is going to turn into an Eagles blowout.
“The best-case scenario for the Eagles would be for this game to turn into Super Bowl LV. If you don’t remember that game, that’s the one where Mahomes tried to play through an injured toe, only to get destroyed by a Buccaneers defense that sacked him three times in a 31-9 Tampa Bay win. If Mahomes aggravates his ankle injury on Sunday, I won’t be surprised if the Chiefs are once again on the losing end of a Super Bowl blowout.
“On the other hand, if Mahomes can get the Chiefs offense going, then you have to like the Chiefs’ chances. For Kansas City, the magic number might just be 310: If the Chiefs can get to just 310 yards on the Eagles’ defense, that means they’ll have been moving the ball. The Eagles only allowed 310 yards of offense or more in seven games this year and they went 4-3 in those games. On the other hand, they went 12-0 when surrendering less than 310 yards.
“The Eagles defense has been great, but it hasn’t faced anyone this year who’s anywhere near the caliber of Mahomes, which might be one reason why Brandon Aiyuk is so sure the Chiefs are going to win. The 49ers receiver is absolutely convinced that the Chiefs are going to “expose” Philadelphia’s defense.
“They talk about [Philadelphia] being a good defense, I’m not too sure,” Aiyuk said on Feb. 4. “I think the pass game, this Kansas City pass game, will expose what we thought we were going to be able to expose before some unfortunate circumstances happened.”
“Does that sound like someone who’s bitter about losing to the Eagles? Yes.
“Can I trust his opinion? I’m still not sure.
“Trying to pick the winner in this game is like trying to pick between left Twix and right Twix. These teams are so evenly matched that I’m almost inclined to pick a tie, but I’m not going to do that, because then I’d be the laughingstock of the internet and we all know how much I hate being the laughingstock of the internet.
“The early version of the NFL script says that the Eagles are going to win 37-34…
“… However, as everyone knows, the NFL never sticks with the early version of the script. Nope, they do a total rewrite five days before the game and I think Chiefs fans are going to like the new script.”
— CBS Sports’ John Breech is trusting Mahomes to overcome Philly’s tenacious pass rush. To read his full Super Bowl column, click here.
“I’m a little surprised the Chiefs are underdogs in this game. I’m more surprised they are plus money on the moneyline. That just sounds wrong. Mahomes has never been a playoff underdog in 13 career starts, and he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in his career as a regular-season underdog. With a record like that, I’m going to take it every time. Plus, Mahomes and the Chiefs have been on this big stage before. Many of the Eagles’ important players have not. Philly is an incredible team, and the more talented unit. However, Super Bowl experience really should come in handy in a tight game.”
— CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani doesn’t like seeing the Chiefs as underdogs, and is trusting in Mahomes. To read his full explanation, click here.
Chiefs vs. Eagles picks on the total
Before you make any Chiefs vs. Eagles picks, you need to check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Super Bowl 57 on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season and identified both the Eagles and Chiefs as its value Super Bowl picks at the beginning of the 2023 NFL playoffs.
Now, the model has simulated Eagles vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning Under the total, but to check out everything the model has to say, head on over to SportsLine.
“I’m going to be a contrarian on this one. Unders went 6-0 in the divisional and conference championship rounds for the first time since 1988. The Super Bowl that year also went Under. ” — CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani
Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards: Over 19.5 (-115). This line appears too low. Gainwell has crossed this number with ease in his past three contests.
Will Haason Reddick record a sack? YES (-150). Reddick has recorded 3.5 sacks in his two postseason games with Philly.
Isiah Pacheco receiving yards: Over 15.5 (-121). Pacheco crossed this line just four times in the regular season, but he caught a career-high five passes for 59 yards in the AFC Championship Game. The rookie running back could be poised to again play a large role in the passing game on Sunday.
Other Super Bowl props
Brett Kern to punt a touchback: Over 0.5 (+400). Kern punted a touchback against the 49ers. This is a flier, but the juice convinced me to play it.
What will be more? Lakers + Warriors points on Feb. 11 (+4.5) OR Jalen Hurts passing yards: Lakers + Warriors points (+4.5) (-115). The Lakers and Warriors are both in the top six when it comes to points scored per game. If we combined their averages, they are expected to cross 235 points. Hurts hasn’t crossed 230 passing yards since returning from injury, not that he has needed to. SportsLine projects him to hit the Under on his passing yards in Super Bowl LVII as well.
Total players with a passing attempt in game: Over 2.5 (+110). I try to place this every year, just for fun. Four players attempted a pass in the last Super Bowl!
Largest lead in game: Under 14.5 (-130). Since 2003, there has been a lead of 15 or more points in just five of the 19 Super Bowls played. This line just sounds too high.